187 Monday Musings: A walk in the graveyard

187 Monday Musings: A walk in the graveyard

I am midway through a book "The art of thinking clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. It is not an earth shatteringly original book, though it sits pretty in that comfortable area between original research and common sense. It has a collection of a hundred common biases that prevent human beings to make perfectly rational, logical and objective decisions. It is an easy read and everyone should read the book to at least become aware of the ubiquitous nature of biases that we are susceptible to.

The first bias outlined by Rolf is called the "Survivorship Bias' which says that 'people systematically overestimate their chances of success'....and that we should 'guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once promising projects, investments and careers....it is a sad walk but one that should clear your mind'. This bias stayed with me for quite some time, for it is not strictly a statistically provable bias, but probably more like a folk wisdom.

We are sure of things more often than not only of what we want, but also how we want it and most importantly why we want it. Life is governed by certitudes. May be some of us care to admit not being sure of things in our personal moments, but continue to maintain the charade of surefootedness. It is not difficult to see why such certitude is the norm and expected behavior. We derive our place in the sun - at workplace, families and society by being sure about things. This is most pronounced at workplace because being sure pays for your groceries. Organizations do not like tentativeness in circumstances and people. They demand guarantees and certitudes. Hence that is what they get. Sometimes authentic and at other times manufactured.

It would all be fine except the survivorship bias. 'Visiting the graves of once promising projects, investments and careers' provides a sense of proportion. I 'knew' of this but I 'felt' the enormity of this wisdom only now. I bounced it with a friend and he assured me that I am now officially 'middle age' or suffering from mid-life crisis. I checked the public view on this bias with a few more and realized the following. One, if you are young and have had no major failures or struggles so far at work or relationships, then you are going to dismiss this bias as humbug of the weak and/or old. Two, if you are not that old and have had a mixed bag of successes or failures, then you are most likely to identify with this wisdom. If you are not that old and have missed the bus in your career or relationships or were particularly ill fated to be dealt with more than normal bad hands then you will use this bias as the 'scientific explanation' of your bad fortune - and then order another drink. Finally if you are old, irrespective of your successes at work or relationships and are by and large mature then you will identify with this bias as one of those things that we must remember, just when we are planning to conquer the world.

Finally, where do I stand on this or better still where do I want to stand on this? I want to go for the final assault with all my might - want the victory badly enough and then go for the walk in the graveyard. 

Guru