138 - What January's foretell
When one has seen a sufficient numbers of new years, one is in a position to compare the manner in which one ushered them. There is a mood of the times that gets emphasized and heightened, influenced by the manner in which the previous December had breathed its last, and depending upon how the winds are blowing, perching the coming year precariously - either erect with hope and optimism or leaden with ambiguity and uncertainty.
January of 2012 amongst its peer group of various January's will surely occupy a place of special analytical curiosity, neither offering clear answers, nor sufficiently jolted by the barrage of questions; neither offering the resplendence of a great year unfolding itself, nor painting the darkness of doom, neither here, not there - with just enough evidence for the bulls and the bears, the eternal optimists and the perennial pessimists, the merchants of hope and the vampires of despair.
The naysayers will refer to what is wrong in political, economic, national and social spheres. Politically, this appears to be a government in suspended animation, the phrase 'policy paralysis' used most often to describe its frenzied inaction, or at least the absence of action that matters; a government which has made shooting itself into its foot a revered art form; the opposition which is inexplicably incoherent and adolescent, does not give hope any fresh lease if life. The economy seems to oscillate between bad news and very bad news, often celebrating the former, because it’s not very bad - GDP numbers getting revised every month but never for the better, shrinking demand, mostly increasing interest rates, dodgy rupee, FII's dalliance with the India story souring- creating an atmosphere bereft of positive sentiment, something which is as important as content. Things haven’t been rosy nationally as well, with the 2G court ruling questioning the policy itself, the executive-judiciary faceoff will not be far behind, as if mud sticking on the political class was not enough having recently faced their worst existential crisis posed by a frail ex soldier and now social reformer from Ralegaon sidhi. While US seems to be holding on, every day something new happens in Europe and the naysayers say, the worst is yet to come. As you can see, not a great description any January would have liked to have.
The Chinese believe that the balance in the universe is maintained by the Ying and the Yang, the opposite forces of nature that keeps things in balance. One does not exist without other and the counterbalance that they provide to each other is the essence of harmony in nature. To all the Ying above, there are evidences of Yang as well, albeit subtle and not obvious to common observation. Politically what we are seeing unfold through all that is distasteful and hopeless, is a purge that was long overdue. Some argue that at least the wrongdoings are catching up. More cases against corruption have seen the light of the day, more arrests and convictions, however woefully inadequate they might be in proportion to the overall mess, have happened in the last few years than any time ever. The politics of the country is undergoing its own manthan, its catharsis or purge, a painful correction that is seeing venom being spewed out, absence of Neelkanth notwithstanding. Every society has gone through this purge before calm, order and sanity has prevailed. Economically, a 7% growth is still one amongst the best in the world, and given the independence and reliance our economy has on domestic consumption, I think we are not half as bad as those who quite literally walk on the crutches of exports. India will, as it has in the past, will grow inspite of the government, not because of it. Europe and US would have learnt its lessons in the merits of living within its means and take necessary actions and limp towards recovery. Most importantly I sense an undoubted optimism on the streets, if not in the board rooms and the dalal street, of ordinary people’s faith in their present being better than their past, and by the same exuberant logic of extension, their future being better than their present.
I happen to be one of them, though it may not be possible to provide sufficient evidence to that optimism. Sometimes, it’s not possible to provide those evidences, and at other times they are not needed.
Guru
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